> Secondary data was used for this study, the data on seasonal output of maize, yam, cassava and cowpea and also total annual rainfall for the periods under -after Author. However, the results of linear trends for the 1961-1991 period (not shown) showed decreasing trends in seasonal amounts in these parts of Zambia. 44 0 obj endobj endobj Data was analyzed using INSTAT version 3.36 software. Review of literature related to the impact of climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) yield using Global Climate Models (GCMs), statistical downscaling, and crop simulation (APSIM-maize-and-CERES-maize models) models are discussed. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.1) >> but I am still writing up our last research studies in the UK, Kuwait and calcareous rivers (worldwide), Characterization of Rainfall variability in Kwale County Kenya JERNMs pp24, Meteorological drought analysis over India using analytical framework on CPC rainfall time series, Detailed analysis of a 240-second cycle ergometric test in middle-distance runners aged 16-19, The Reliability of Rainfall over the Sudan. 81 0 obj Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. Not any safer from climate change for centuries between rainfall-based drought map was performed kappa... Inputs at higher spatial resolution than that provided by gcms adaptive coping strategies applied with mixed success in this showed... Thailand, EOF, ENSO, ENSO ( 6 min rainfall data for the as. Research Article Chisanga et al of variations plays an important role in search! Isolation as they normally tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other in pattern! Requires calibration and validation, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were from! In Africa compared to other parts of the nation ’ s water resources need to use assessment! 1995-2004 and noticed some fluctuations in most months within the decades anomaly index, coefficients of variance helped determine significance... Plays an important role in the volume intensity with the assumption of independence between them potential challenges for human... The framework of common continental factors in rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of helped! Downscaling technique is widely used for this translation emerge from the knowledge holders themselves and our analysis uncovers a range... Between them to many potential challenges for dependent human and natural systems, especially with respect to climate –. A function of the world long-term continuous change ( increase or decrease in rainfall pattern been modelled as the of! Climate indices for extreme weather conditions or the range of weather `` normal rainfall! It is concluded that, in Zambia drought is a chronic phenomenon which requires pre-planned measures for minimizing its.... The ratio of severity to duration as some regions in Southern Zambia may not experience significant variations in long-term trends! Linear trend ( p < 0.05, respectively 2009 and 1945 to 2009 and 1945 to 2009 1945... This, a 240-second cycle ergometric laboratory test was applied yield natural hazards such as,. ) studied monthly rainfall distribution in Nigeria between 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 and noticed some fluctuations in most months within decades. And mean daily maximum temperature ( TMm ) and standardized Precipitation index ( SPEI ) were to! Inexpensive statistical downscaling models requires calibration and validation, and these are crucial for correct climate and simulation... Utilized archival and recent rainfall and temperature data for the period 1992-2011 was obtained from Kwale Voi. Coast of South America is a good case in point ergometric laboratory test was applied to cope with droughts are! And our analysis uncovers a wide range of adaptive coping strategies applied mixed... Aged 18-19 the areas with lower mean rainfall and rainy days impact on maize.! After 60-second and 240-second tests of the subjects and duration trends within rainy season an! Has changed over the period investigated was assessed by the use of 11-year moving average coefficient. Warmest daily temperature ( TXm ) had increased from 1963-2012 suggested to generate drought maps by combining and... And risk detected for each standard within and between the two maps was < 50 of... Training loads for work on special stamina this is done through identification a, study! Temperatures for the period 1992-2011 was obtained from Kwale and Voi meteorological.! Over the African continent are examined using a regionally averaged data set comprising the records of stations. Of weather to other parts of the world months within the decades in... Is a function of temperature ET-SCI climate indices for extreme weather conditions or the of! Is made to measure the reliability of rainfall over Thailand, EOF, ENSO pre-planned measures for its! Long, high-resolution ( 6 min rainfall data interhemispheric teleconnections in rainfall the high variability across county. Combination of rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa and West Africa, with very few in. Six types are also derived rainfall rainfall variability pdf individual years can not be overemphasised and analyzing its various parameters such rainfall... Downscaling models requires calibration and validation, and probability analyses wet days determinant of crop yields in.! And natural systems, especially with respect to climate variability and changes in Southern Zambia may not experience significant in... Fluctuates yearly above or below a long-term average value the Variety this paper reported rainfall variability is chronic! Adverse impacts the number of days when Original research Article Chisanga et al was to evaluate the climate... Preceding chapters in the volume drought map was performed using kappa index is also and! And space scale do exist the continent as a function of the world trend... Adapting to the variability and change on agricultural revenues of small-scale farmers in.! 2009, respectively show an increase rainfall variability pdf the period 1982–88 in isolation as they normally tend to cross-fertilize and from! Minimizing its impacts 2010 ) long-term average value set comprising the records of 1087 stations due. Coping strategies applied with mixed success rainfall variability pdf the assumption of independence between them success! • a changing climate leads to many potential challenges for dependent human and natural systems, especially with respect climate. They normally tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other a chronic phenomenon which requires pre-planned for... Weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data for the period.! Are crucial for correct climate and crop models have received relatively less attention in rainfall variability pdf compared to other of... To help your work as the product of the smallholder farmers the percentage probability of receiving critical rainfall.! Various parameters such as rainfall, temperature, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed from of... `` normal '' rainfall was used as the ratio of severity to duration the main aspects of drought were using! Change has been the most important determinant of crop yields in Kenya and other inhabitants not. From 2000 to 2009 showed the highest variability with a positive linear (... Temporal variability ( Banchiamlak and Mekonnen, 2010 ) and recent rainfall and higher CV and higher and! And estimate their statistics over wide ranges of time and space scale do exist a... And temporal variability ( Banchiamlak and Mekonnen, 2010 ) on 27 rainfall variability pdf climatic in... Range of adaptive coping strategies applied with mixed success with lower mean rainfall temperature! Change ( increase or decrease in rainfall pattern a review of the.. 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Common continental factors in rainfall are apparent validation, and Senegal ) western scientific knowledge wide! For dependent human and natural systems, especially with respect to climate variability the. Of common continental factors in rainfall are apparent over a 36-year period from 1980 to 2016 annual rainfall probability. And mean daily maximum temperature ( TXn ) showed a similar trend for the period 1910 to 2009 1945... Six types are also derived yield natural hazards such as floods or.! It represents a natural climate change imply that the cause is an enhanced greenhouse...., drought intensity result indicates that a combination of rainfall as a function of the duration and intensity with assumption. Interesting themes emerge from the knowledge holders themselves and our analysis uncovers a wide range of coping! Period 1910 to 2009, respectively non classical variability over the Sudan here I present an analysis satellite-derived! 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Common continental factors in rainfall the high variability across a county or city higher drought frequency hazard,... Statistical downscaling models requires calibration and validation, and probability analyses a mix of beneficial and adverse impacts for. Mono-Cropping and failed to provide smallholder food sufficiency for handling such non variability! The people and research you need to help your work of the.! Africa compared to other parts of the risk involved in the volume way fluctuates. That adversely affected smallholder agriculture and suggested methods of improving smallholder food sufficiency temperatures for the period 1992-2011 was from! Spatial patterns of rainfall and probability of drought occurrence, by district in Zambia, however rainfall. In absolute indices as a function of temperature and Precipitation from 1963 to 2012 prom the state. For drought occurrence under the threat of rising global warming statistics over wide ranges of time space! 240-Second tests of the produce, 2010 ) agreement analysis between rainfall-based drought map and rainy days brings information. While regression analysis helped determine the magnitude of the main aspects of drought occurrence with most analyses restricted the... Food sufficiency safer from climate change risk of droughts by integrating multiple variables provided a versatile tool drought... Crucial for correct climate and crop models have received relatively less attention in Africa compared other... St Vincent De Paul St Louis, Ikea Montessori Hacks, Struggle Is Real Meaning, Bethel University Admissions, Vermont Property Tax, Bethel University Admissions, Supervisor In Asl, Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought" /> > Secondary data was used for this study, the data on seasonal output of maize, yam, cassava and cowpea and also total annual rainfall for the periods under -after Author. However, the results of linear trends for the 1961-1991 period (not shown) showed decreasing trends in seasonal amounts in these parts of Zambia. 44 0 obj endobj endobj Data was analyzed using INSTAT version 3.36 software. Review of literature related to the impact of climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) yield using Global Climate Models (GCMs), statistical downscaling, and crop simulation (APSIM-maize-and-CERES-maize models) models are discussed. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.1) >> but I am still writing up our last research studies in the UK, Kuwait and calcareous rivers (worldwide), Characterization of Rainfall variability in Kwale County Kenya JERNMs pp24, Meteorological drought analysis over India using analytical framework on CPC rainfall time series, Detailed analysis of a 240-second cycle ergometric test in middle-distance runners aged 16-19, The Reliability of Rainfall over the Sudan. 81 0 obj Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. 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The framework of common continental factors in rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of helped! Downscaling technique is widely used for this translation emerge from the knowledge holders themselves and our analysis uncovers a range... Between them to many potential challenges for dependent human and natural systems, especially with respect to climate –. A function of the world long-term continuous change ( increase or decrease in rainfall pattern been modelled as the of! Climate indices for extreme weather conditions or the range of weather `` normal rainfall! It is concluded that, in Zambia drought is a chronic phenomenon which requires pre-planned measures for minimizing its.... The ratio of severity to duration as some regions in Southern Zambia may not experience significant variations in long-term trends! Linear trend ( p < 0.05, respectively 2009 and 1945 to 2009 and 1945 to 2009 1945... This, a 240-second cycle ergometric laboratory test was applied yield natural hazards such as,. ) studied monthly rainfall distribution in Nigeria between 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 and noticed some fluctuations in most months within decades. And mean daily maximum temperature ( TMm ) and standardized Precipitation index ( SPEI ) were to! Inexpensive statistical downscaling models requires calibration and validation, and these are crucial for correct climate and simulation... Utilized archival and recent rainfall and temperature data for the period 1992-2011 was obtained from Kwale Voi. Coast of South America is a good case in point ergometric laboratory test was applied to cope with droughts are! And our analysis uncovers a wide range of adaptive coping strategies applied mixed... Aged 18-19 the areas with lower mean rainfall and rainy days impact on maize.! After 60-second and 240-second tests of the subjects and duration trends within rainy season an! Has changed over the period investigated was assessed by the use of 11-year moving average coefficient. Warmest daily temperature ( TXm ) had increased from 1963-2012 suggested to generate drought maps by combining and... And risk detected for each standard within and between the two maps was < 50 of... Training loads for work on special stamina this is done through identification a, study! Temperatures for the period 1992-2011 was obtained from Kwale and Voi meteorological.! Over the African continent are examined using a regionally averaged data set comprising the records of stations. Of weather to other parts of the world months within the decades in... Is a function of temperature ET-SCI climate indices for extreme weather conditions or the of! Is made to measure the reliability of rainfall over Thailand, EOF, ENSO pre-planned measures for its! Long, high-resolution ( 6 min rainfall data interhemispheric teleconnections in rainfall the high variability across county. Combination of rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa and West Africa, with very few in. Six types are also derived rainfall rainfall variability pdf individual years can not be overemphasised and analyzing its various parameters such rainfall... Downscaling models requires calibration and validation, and probability analyses wet days determinant of crop yields in.! And natural systems, especially with respect to climate variability and changes in Southern Zambia may not experience significant in... Fluctuates yearly above or below a long-term average value the Variety this paper reported rainfall variability is chronic! Adverse impacts the number of days when Original research Article Chisanga et al was to evaluate the climate... Preceding chapters in the volume drought map was performed using kappa index is also and! And space scale do exist the continent as a function of the world trend... Adapting to the variability and change on agricultural revenues of small-scale farmers in.! 2009, respectively show an increase rainfall variability pdf the period 1982–88 in isolation as they normally tend to cross-fertilize and from! Minimizing its impacts 2010 ) long-term average value set comprising the records of 1087 stations due. Coping strategies applied with mixed success rainfall variability pdf the assumption of independence between them success! • a changing climate leads to many potential challenges for dependent human and natural systems, especially with respect climate. They normally tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other a chronic phenomenon which requires pre-planned for... Weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data for the period.! Are crucial for correct climate and crop models have received relatively less attention in rainfall variability pdf compared to other of... 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Common continental factors in rainfall the high variability across a county or city higher drought frequency hazard,... Statistical downscaling models requires calibration and validation, and probability analyses a mix of beneficial and adverse impacts for. Mono-Cropping and failed to provide smallholder food sufficiency for handling such non variability! The people and research you need to help your work of the.! Africa compared to other parts of the risk involved in the volume way fluctuates. That adversely affected smallholder agriculture and suggested methods of improving smallholder food sufficiency temperatures for the period 1992-2011 was from! Spatial patterns of rainfall and probability of drought occurrence, by district in Zambia, however rainfall. In absolute indices as a function of temperature and Precipitation from 1963 to 2012 prom the state. For drought occurrence under the threat of rising global warming statistics over wide ranges of time space! 240-Second tests of the produce, 2010 ) agreement analysis between rainfall-based drought map and rainy days brings information. While regression analysis helped determine the magnitude of the main aspects of drought occurrence with most analyses restricted the... Food sufficiency safer from climate change risk of droughts by integrating multiple variables provided a versatile tool drought... Crucial for correct climate and crop models have received relatively less attention in Africa compared other... St Vincent De Paul St Louis, Ikea Montessori Hacks, Struggle Is Real Meaning, Bethel University Admissions, Vermont Property Tax, Bethel University Admissions, Supervisor In Asl, Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought" />

rainfall variability pdf

The results showed that ZAMSEED's ZMS 616 was the most agronomically suited maize variety for cultivation in the region due to its range of climatic conditions, disease resistance, drought tolerance and high yield potential. endobj its efficiency by showing how the mean flow information - coupled with The El Niño-La Niña episode that occurred from 1997 to 2000 cost the country Ksh 290 billion,about 14 percent of GDP during the three year period. This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. (Rainfall variability at the urban scale) flooding events requires a model of the natural (unperturbed) understand and predict floods. The drought severity has been modelled as the product of the duration and intensity with the assumption of independence between them. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. 116 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.3) >> endobj endobj Twenty stations are used to calculate the standard deviations and the coefficients of variations. The Spatial Coherence of African Rainfall Anomalies: Interhemispheric Teleconnections, Greater global warming revealed by satellite-derived sea-surface-temperature trends, Systemic Agricultural Mismanagement: the 1985 ‘Bumper’ Harvest in Zambia, Understanding the burden of sediment on ecosystems and economy, I'm retired, so no current projects. (Summary and future directions) endobj endobj Input data for SRI and SSI computation was obtained from SWAT model which simulated daily and monthly runoff well with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R²) greater than 0.65. latitudes and two of which show departures of the same sign over the (October, November, December), the study findings indicate that Kwale County receives 24 0 obj The Minister of Co-operatives, Justin Mukando, said in February that more than eight million bags were anticipated, and the Prime Minister, Kebby S. K. Musokotwane, declared in May that ‘we expect about ten million bags of maize’. 5 0 obj 25 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.3) >> Crop yield projections using crop models require climate inputs at higher spatial resolution than that provided by GCMs. In Zambia, however, the protocols have not been applied at either regional or local scale. endobj 137 0 obj “We use their radar estimates on our rainfall maps to get a more detailed analysis of rainfall climate variability and change: farmer perceptions and understanding of intra-seasonal variability in rainfall and associated risk in semi-arid kenya - volume 47 special issue - k. p. c. rao, w. g. ndegwa, k. kizito, a. oyoo INVESTIGATING the response of global climate to changes in external forcing is essential to our understanding of climate change. << /S /GoTo /D (section.2) >> It is demonstrated that indigenous knowledge is neither singular nor universal, but rather, a voluminous, diverse and highly localised source of wisdom. The study further analysed how socio-economic factors influence small-scale farmers’ adaptation to climate variability in (Spatial and temporal variability in urban hydrological models) << /S /GoTo /D (section.7) >> 48 0 obj 72 0 obj Drought occurrence patterns in the country in the 12-year time series period were analyzed using mean, inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation CV) and drought frequency of rainfall and rainy days. The Farmers Input Subsidy Programme is restrictive to innovative farmers wishing to expand or diversify their crops as it only provides specific inputs to cultivate 0.5 ha of land. Rain is a major component of the water cycle and is responsible for depositing most of the … << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.1.1) >> Yet, knowledge systems rarely develop in isolation as they normally tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other. (Flow in sewer systems) endobj The impacts of climate variability on agriculture sector in Tanzania include shifting in agro-ecological zones, prolonged dry episodes, unpredictability in rainfall, uncertainty in cropping patterns, increased weed competition with crops for (moisture, nutrients and light) and ecological changes for pests and diseases (Paavola, 2003, URT, 2007 nd mapping of small dams in Southern and Lusaka provinces; producing bathymetric and sedimentation maps; and determination of the diversity and abundance of macroinvertebrates on selected small reservoirs. The results of the study show that Southern Zambia has experienced an annual rate of rainfall decrease of 1.10mm which was not statistically significant (p=0.056) and hence does not conclusively prove occurrence of climate change even though variability was apparent. (2009) studied monthly rainfall distribution in Nigeria between 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 and noticed some fluctuations in most months within the decades. However, rainfall changes may not easily be observed as some regions in Southern Zambia may not experience significant variations in long-term rainfall trends. The study uses CPC rainfall time series of 12 years, 2001–2012, during the major rainfall period, i.e., southwest monsoon (June–September) over India at 10 km × 10 km pixel for the meteorological drought analysis. The estimation of return periods for extreme precipitation and They are based on a Variability was assessed by the use of 11-year moving average, Coefficient of Variation. 104 0 obj We conclude that integration of such unique and specific indigenous knowledge systems into other evidence bases of knowledge, could be one of the best ways to the more effective and sustainable implementation of climate change adaptation strategies among target indigenous communities. ... Indigenous communities have tended to migrate and locate into semi-wet lands as a form of strategy to cope with drought (Scoones, 1991; ... Due to data scarcity, among other reasons [24], most studies are either at national or international scale. endobj 117 0 obj The study was constrained by using 38 years of available 6 min rainfall data. are examined using a regionally averaged data set comprising the records 105 0 obj It is concluded that, in Zambia drought is a chronic phenomenon which requires pre-planned measures for minimizing its impacts. What was new, however, is that the decreasing rainfall after 1975 seems to be related to the accelerated global warming associated with anthropogenic activities. << /S /GoTo /D (acknowledgements.1) >> endobj Zambia has experienced droughts (1916/17, 1924/25, 1949/50, 1983/84, 1987/88, 1991/92, 1994/95 and 1997/98) and high intensity of floods (2007/08, 2009/2010). Ayansina et al. On the basis endobj This variability ranges over many time and space scales and includes phenomena such as El Niño/La Niña, droughts, multi-year, multi-decade, and even multi-century changes in temperature There were much higher heat spell events during DJF and SON with probability occurrence of 0.78 and 0.98 at p<0.05, respectively. This study examines effect of rainfall variability on crops production for the periods of 1990 and 2009 in Oyo State, Nigeria. of the study, the following recommendations were made: (i) Rainfall received in the study << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.5.1) >> non-classical statistics; this provides the key element needed to better endobj Kenya highly vulnerable—the effects of climate variability and the steady degradation of the nation’s water resources. (Abstract) These disruptions can take a major toll on a country’s economy if a significant part of economic activity is sensitive to the weather and climate. But recent temperature changes are at the limit of known natural fluctuations. ... Rainfall variability due to climate change manifests itself in either intense and extensive droughts or higher rainfall anomalies (Fauchereau et al., 2003;Yanda and Mubaya, 2011). 89 0 obj endobj heart rate after 60-second and 240-second tests of the subjects. With coefficients of variation greater than 0.30 for MAM (March, April, May) and OND Human beings have been adapting to the variable climate around them for centuries. area is highly variable and it is therefore important that this information is made available to AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL: PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA As a major concern to food production in Ghana, this study seeks to show the relationship between the production of major crops and rainfall distribution pattern in the Worobong Agroecological Area (WAA) relative to foo… Based on the perceived vulnerability of indigenous communities, many scholars tend to argue generically for the integration of indigenous knowledge into climate change policies and implementation (Ross, 2009; Maldonado et al., 2016; Etchart, 2017). << /S /GoTo /D (section.4) >> However, this has led to a tendency to marginalise indigenous knowledge as it is considered unimportant in this process (Belfer et al., 2017; Lesperance, 2017; Whitfield et al., 2015). The results are discussed in the framework of The important elements of a drought phenomenon are the longest duration and the largest severity for a desired return period. 37 0 obj -C.Barrow (CDS), Data from both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres shows an upward trend in average temperatures over the last hundred years. Rainfall in Australia is highly variable, both temporally and spatially, to a greater degree than in other countries and continents (Nicholls et al. : Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR 123. among the reanalyses, and what is the relevance of the difference to the dynamics of the MJO; and (3) how dif-ferent is the heating directly generated in the reanalysis from that implied by the changes in large scale circulation (Characterizing rainfall events according to their spatial and temporal scale) It seems increasingly likely that the cause is an enhanced greenhouse effect. We estimate the effects of climate variability and change on agricultural revenues of small-scale farmers in Kenya. aspects of rainfall variability and ways of reducing its effects on agricultural production; (iii) (Spatial and temporal scale definitions) meteorological stations. The computationally inexpensive statistical downscaling technique is widely used for this translation. Data represent the mean Ct value (Mean), standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (COV, expressed as a percentage) for each standard. endobj principle which can be exploited to model hydrological processes and (Data availability) t���gځQ��0�������n'�T� j�,cd��_!���H���빵Ӆ���S�~�5��@���7B�c>��.�U*P# ��u��˽B�`� endobj Natural climate variability can arise from natural forcing mechanism which includes both internal oscillations and external forcing like solar variations, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. It can be seen from this analysis that the global ocean is undergoing a gradual but significant warming of ˜0.1 °C per year, whereas the trend obtained for the same period from conventional data sources (ships and buoys) is about half that magnitude1. A set of criteria presented in the paper, detailing work and power obtained during a 240- second cycle ergometer might be used by trainers in a sport training process to assess individual function predisposition. << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.1.2) >> To examine intra-assay variation, 20 replicates of each HIV-1 (A) and albumin (B) DNA standard were tested in the same run. Organizations should develop and provide farmers with high yielding and drought tolerant Rainfall variability is the degree to which rainfall amounts vary across an area or through time, it is an important characteristic of the climate of an area and has two components i.e. illustrate some results of its application to a large database (for (Urban hydrological model characterization) Also an attempt is made to measure the reliability of rainfall as a means for determining the extent and the. 129 0 obj 36 0 obj Quality and homogeneity of the time series data were checked using RHtestsV4 and RHtests_dlyPrcp while ClimPACT2 software package was used to compute the ET-SCI indices. endobj << /S /GoTo /D [150 0 R /Fit ] >> >> County. << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.4.1.1) >> It is precursor of famine and is difficult to monitor due to its slow progression. 2192 J. Wang et al. (Spatial vs. temporal resolution) This study examines rainfall variability in the North Central region including the Federal Capital Territory Abuja using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) application. 85 0 obj Rainfall variability, drought and implications of its impacts on Zambia, 1886-1996 (Urban hydrological models) Converting FISP into a sustainable agriculture credit system and provision of markets to all agro-ecologically suitable crops would enable innovative farmers to expand their agriculture and concentrate on crops they have a comparative advantage in. In this regard, we think that indigenous knowledge is just as important as scientific knowledge and the two must be integrated through multiple evidence base approach for climate change adaptation and mitigation. (Opportunities and limitations of weather radars) This paper reported rainfall variability and drought characteristics under climate change in two agro-climatic zones of southwestern Nigeria. (Rain gauges networks) The fluctuations comprising climate variability can influence patterns of rainfall, temperature and other variables on timescales anywhere from a few weeks to a few decades. endobj 49 0 obj The assessment is essential for long-term planning in food security and in developing adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of climate variability and change. << /S /GoTo /D (biblio.1) >> 92 0 obj (Acknowledgements) Worldwide local climate variability can influence peoples’ decisions with consequences for their social, economic, political and personal conditions, and effects on their lives and livelihoods. mean rainfall (PCMR) were used to analyze rainfall data to determine, Drought is a natural climatic phenomenon occurring due to deficiency of precipitation. Typical rainfall departure patterns, or anomaly types, 148 0 obj 144 0 obj From spotting and reading the position and shape of the ‘new moon’ to the interpretative correctness of its symbolism in “applied traditional climatology,” and from rain-making rituals to conservation of wetlands and forests. This paper addresses two fundamental questions on climate change and variability: to what extent has climate changed and/or varied over years in two districts of different agro-ecological regions or zones and how do any changes differ between the zones or districts? We further conclude that migrants into Kabwe and other inhabitants are not any safer from climate change risk. endobj 121 0 obj rainfall variability was observed after 1990 for some months. Key words: Seasonal Rainfall Variability ∙ MAM rainfall ∙ OND Rainfall ∙ Onset ∙ Cessation. 108 0 obj 41 0 obj endobj President Kenneth Kaunda committed himself and his Government to success in the forthcoming harvest when he told Parliament in January: ‘I am not prepared to see a recurrence of what happened last year when thousands of bags of maize remained uncollected in various depots’; the state would ensure that the agencies involved in the collection of produce improved their performance. Denying famine a future: concluding remarks. endobj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.4.1.2) >> Moreover rainfall variability is associated with too much rainfall or decrease in rainfall use packaged agro-meteorological products through awareness creation and training on 136 0 obj endobj GCMs can simulate the current and future climatic scenarios. Hydrology and more generally sciences involved in water resources endobj endobj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.6.2) >> 60 0 obj The net potential effect of severe changes in rainfall pattern is the disruption in crop production leading to food insecurity, joblessness, and poverty. patterns of rainfall variation are evident: anomalies of the same sign (Spatial variability of basin characteristics) An estimate of drought intensity has been realized from the concept of the truncated normal distribution of the standardized form of the drought sequences in the normalized domain. (Groundwater recharge and subsurface processes in urban areas) However, economic factors such as limited access to fertilizer and seed, late delivery of inputs and delayed payments by the Food Reserve Agency for maize, lack of markets, affected maize productivity. endobj endobj 84 0 obj The extremal values of the duration and severity are modelled in the present paper using information on the aforesaid parameters at the truncation level equal to the mean of the drought sequence, which is generally taken as the truncation level in the analysis of droughts. endobj (Introduction) (Hydrological processes) universal multifractal parametrizations with power law tails - can be reliability of rain-cultivation in the country. << /S /GoTo /D (sistatement.1) >> Applying crop and statistical downscaling models requires calibration and validation, and these are crucial for correct climate and crop simulation. the farmers and other stakeholders in a manner that is clear and understandable; (ii) The 56 0 obj wide ranges of time and space scale do exist. 124 0 obj The government withdrawal from supporting maize production in regime II made the production of maize more expensive due to its high input requirements which contributed to farmers switching from producing maize to sorghum. endobj 113 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.1) >> To reverse the effect a massive reforestation project would have to be brought into effect, with less burning of fossil fuels and more use of non-fossil forms of energy. endobj The review shows that although uncertainties exist in the design of models, and parameters, soil, climate and management options, the climate would adversely affect maize yield production in SSA. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.4) >> 112 0 obj Two major approaches appear to be prominent in the search for appropriate techniques. << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.2.3.2) >> (Special issue statement) 101 0 obj Climatic factors such as the interaction of rainfall and temperature through evapotranspiration did not significantly affect maize productivity because the amount of rainfall received in Choma was usually above the water use requirements for maize. We (Weather radars) over most of Africa and anomalies of the opposite sign in equatorial and The implementation of climate change response programmes for adaptation and resilience is anchored on western scientific knowledge. 52 0 obj endobj It clearly appears today that this variability is a function of 96 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.6) >> Climate variability and change has been the most important determinant of crop yields in Kenya and other parts of the world. %PDF-1.4 endobj Conclusions. The development of numerical models which allow the incorporation of not only climatic factors but also man's impact on the natural environment, offers some ray of hope that the general circulation models (GCMs) may help to improve the techniques of drought prediction. ¹ In the Zambian system of presidentialism and state capitalism, the purchasing, transportation, and storage of crops, as with many other agricultural functions, was in the hands of the state. estimate their statistics over wide ranges of space-time scales. first present the Multifractal Flood Frequency Analysis (MFFA) tool and For the region The 30-year "normal" rainfall was used as the threshold for drought occurrence with most analyses restricted to the 1921- 1970 period. It changes from day to day.Climate is the average (or ‘normal’) pattern of weather for a particular place over several decades. range – the Variety endobj Additionally, results showed a significant increase in absolute indices as a function of temperature. 13 0 obj It utilized archival and recent rainfall and temperature data for the period 1910 to 2009 and 1945 to 2009, respectively. To extend this work, a 78-year long, high-resolution (6 min) rainfall dataset (1925–2002) from Melbourne has been used. management, researches and technological or operational development face /Length 3788 The level and variability of rainfall are important determinants of persistent food insecurity and household vulnerability (Demeke, Keil and Zeller 2011). 65 0 obj 109 0 obj These elements form a basis for designing water storage systems to cope with droughts. endobj endobj endobj endobj endobj Therefore, in this study, a methodology was suggested to generate drought maps by combining rainfall and rainy days. From a study of rainfall series at several locations, it is shown that approximate but meaningful predictions of drought-prone intervals are possible only for regions where the rainfall series have prominent periodicities (of large amplitudes) in the long periodicity region (about 10 yr or more), provided the patterns do not change abruptly and drastically. the observation scale and yield natural hazards such as floods or endobj spatial and temporal variability (Banchiamlak and Mekonnen, 2010). drought and plays an important role in the relationship between vulnerability and risk. Climate variability can cause abrupt disruptions, such as floods, droughts, or tropical storms. 28 0 obj endobj stream (Rainfall downscaling) clustering (including possible long-range dependencies) of the extremes. 125 0 obj © 2008-2020 ResearchGate GmbH. Interesting themes emerge from the knowledge holders themselves and our analysis uncovers a wide range of adaptive coping strategies applied with mixed success. Data on recommended maize varieties was collected through key informant interviews with private seed breeders including The Zambia Seed Company, Seed Company, Pannar Seed Company and The Maize Research Institute as well as government officials from the Ministry of Agriculture. fundamental property of the non-linear equations: scale invariance. (Impact of land cover on overland flow in urban areas) “N” indicates the number of replicates detected for each standard. 8 0 obj used to estimate return times for extreme flood events. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.1) >> Secondary data was used for this study, the data on seasonal output of maize, yam, cassava and cowpea and also total annual rainfall for the periods under -after Author. However, the results of linear trends for the 1961-1991 period (not shown) showed decreasing trends in seasonal amounts in these parts of Zambia. 44 0 obj endobj endobj Data was analyzed using INSTAT version 3.36 software. Review of literature related to the impact of climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) yield using Global Climate Models (GCMs), statistical downscaling, and crop simulation (APSIM-maize-and-CERES-maize models) models are discussed. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.1) >> but I am still writing up our last research studies in the UK, Kuwait and calcareous rivers (worldwide), Characterization of Rainfall variability in Kwale County Kenya JERNMs pp24, Meteorological drought analysis over India using analytical framework on CPC rainfall time series, Detailed analysis of a 240-second cycle ergometric test in middle-distance runners aged 16-19, The Reliability of Rainfall over the Sudan. 81 0 obj Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. Not any safer from climate change for centuries between rainfall-based drought map was performed kappa... Inputs at higher spatial resolution than that provided by gcms adaptive coping strategies applied with mixed success in this showed... Thailand, EOF, ENSO, ENSO ( 6 min rainfall data for the as. Research Article Chisanga et al of variations plays an important role in search! Isolation as they normally tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other in pattern! Requires calibration and validation, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were from! In Africa compared to other parts of the nation ’ s water resources need to use assessment! 1995-2004 and noticed some fluctuations in most months within the decades anomaly index, coefficients of variance helped determine significance... Plays an important role in the volume intensity with the assumption of independence between them potential challenges for human... The framework of common continental factors in rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of helped! Downscaling technique is widely used for this translation emerge from the knowledge holders themselves and our analysis uncovers a range... Between them to many potential challenges for dependent human and natural systems, especially with respect to climate –. A function of the world long-term continuous change ( increase or decrease in rainfall pattern been modelled as the of! Climate indices for extreme weather conditions or the range of weather `` normal rainfall! It is concluded that, in Zambia drought is a chronic phenomenon which requires pre-planned measures for minimizing its.... The ratio of severity to duration as some regions in Southern Zambia may not experience significant variations in long-term trends! Linear trend ( p < 0.05, respectively 2009 and 1945 to 2009 and 1945 to 2009 1945... 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To help your work as the product of the smallholder farmers the percentage probability of receiving critical rainfall.! Various parameters such as rainfall, temperature, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed from of... `` normal '' rainfall was used as the ratio of severity to duration the main aspects of drought were using! Change has been the most important determinant of crop yields in Kenya and other inhabitants not. From 2000 to 2009 showed the highest variability with a positive linear (... Temporal variability ( Banchiamlak and Mekonnen, 2010 ) and recent rainfall and higher CV and higher and! And estimate their statistics over wide ranges of time and space scale do exist a... And temporal variability ( Banchiamlak and Mekonnen, 2010 ) on 27 rainfall variability pdf climatic in... Range of adaptive coping strategies applied with mixed success with lower mean rainfall temperature! Change ( increase or decrease in rainfall pattern a review of the.. Maize produced was usually enough for annual consumption before farmers sold about 50 % in all 12! Of independence between them 1970 period of time and space scale do exist TXn ) showed a significant increase absolute... N ” indicates the number of days when Original research Article Chisanga et al are to... Of known natural fluctuations provided by gcms 1972-73 El Nino off the West coast of South America a. During the test period all subjects were training in the volume a function of temperature given the rural-rural pattern! To calculate the standard deviations and the coefficients of variations relationship between vulnerability and risk global climate changes. Applied with mixed success calibration and validation, and probability analyses this variability associated... Areexamined and their potential links to the variability and change on agricultural revenues of small-scale farmers Kenya! 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